000
WTPZ41 KNHC 190247
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
 
AN ASCAT OVERPASS RETRIEVED THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT ELIDA
HAS NOT YET WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED
CIRCULATION THAT MAY STILL CONTAIN 35 KT WINDS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE
IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH ULTIMATELY SHOULD REDUCE ELIDA
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS.  THIS WEAKENING IS
REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...AND IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A CONSISTENT 280/12...WITHIN THE
LOW- TO MID-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS PERSISTENT WESTWARD
MOTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 18.2N 129.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 18.1N 131.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.9N 134.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 17.7N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.5N 139.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN