000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180819
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST REMAINING BAND SITUATED OVER
THE WEST SEMICIRCLE.  AN ANALYSIS OF THE 0238Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES
INDICATED WINDS OF 50 KT OR LESS....BUT THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES BASED ON CONSTRAINTS WERE 55 AND 65 KT.  SO AS A
COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT WHICH
COULD POSSIBLY BE A BIT GENEROUS.  DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE ITS TOLL ON
ELIDA...WEAKENING THE SYSTEM WITH TIME.  THIS IS INDICATED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND MATCHES A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE
GFDL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN ESTIMATED 270/11...WITHIN THE LOW TO MID
LAYER STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  LITTLE
DEVIATION IN FORWARD SPEED AND MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0238Z QUIKSCAT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 17.5N 125.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 17.2N 130.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 132.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 16.8N 135.1W    30 KT
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 16.7N 140.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 17.0N 145.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 153.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA