000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180253
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
 
DESPITE TRAVERSING OVER COOLER WATERS...ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED AN
IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH -80C COLD TOPS.  AN AMSR-E
MICROWAVE OVERPASS DEPICTED AN IRREGULAR EYE BENEATH THE CLOUD
CANOPY.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS AGAIN BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS...65 KT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE
WITH TIME...SO A STEADY WEAKENING IN THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST. 
THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AN UNCHANGED 270/13...AND
THE TRACK FORECAST AND PHILOSOPHY ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.  ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PRACTICALLY DUE WESTWARD
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY THE VARIABLE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE 
GFDL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 17.3N 124.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 17.3N 126.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 17.2N 129.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.8N 134.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 16.5N 139.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     23/0000Z 16.5N 151.5W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/RHOME