000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172054 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008 ELIDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION...EVEN STILL WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN EMBEDDED EYE FEATURE...BUT EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE BIT TILTED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND TO THE EAST. THE OVERALL SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS SLOWLY DEGRADING...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS. WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT STRONG ALONG THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST TRACK...BUT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...SO A STEADY DECLINE IN THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST. ONE MIGHT EXPECT THAT A RELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE SUCH AS ELIDA COULD WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY OVER COOLER WATERS...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE SHIPS THAT OFTEN DEPICTS WEAKENING OF EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY...SUGGESTS IT COULD HANG ON AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS OR SO...AND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE A LITTLE BEYOND THAT. THAT IS THE SOLUTION SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS ABOUT 270/13...AND THE TRACK FORECAST AND SUPPORTING REASONING ARE UNCHANGED. THE CYCLONE SHOULD HEAD ALMOST DUE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS NORTH WHEN IT IS A WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHER WEST. THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE HWRF AND GFDL TRACKS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 17.2N 123.3W 70 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 17.2N 125.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.1N 130.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 16.9N 132.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 138.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 16.5N 143.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 16.5N 150.0W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB