000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170836
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
 
ELIDA HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND THE EYE CAN NOT BE
CLEARLY SEEN ON IR IMAGES. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME
DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT ELIDA WILL WEAKEN FAST...AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS ELIDA MOVING WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...AND AFTER THAT ELIDA SHOULD MOVE
WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 17.5N 120.7W    85 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 17.8N 122.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 18.0N 125.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 18.0N 130.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 135.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA