000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160250
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008
 
ELIDA'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS
EVENING...WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WRAPPING NICELY AROUND A
MICROWAVE EYE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT
00Z WERE T4.0...65 KT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT AT THAT TIME WAS 61 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT.
ELIDA STILL HAS 12-24 HOURS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND THE
EASTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS MODEST.  THUS...A BRIEF
REINTENSIFICATION WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING.  BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW...HOWEVER...ELIDA'S PASSAGE OVER SUB-26C WATER SHOULD
INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.  BY 48 HOURS...WHEN THE SSTS SHOULD BE
NEAR 24C...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THE GFS DIDN'T APPEAR TO INITIALIZE ELIDA STRONGLY
ENOUGH...AND SEEMS TO MOVE IT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TOO QUICKLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE REMAINING
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS...UKMET/GFDL/HWRF/ECMWF/NOGAPS...AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 16.4N 114.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 16.6N 116.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 17.1N 118.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 17.4N 121.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 17.6N 123.8W    45 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 139.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN