000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151445
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ELIDA IS
EXPERIENCING EASTERLY SHEAR WITH ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS SYMMETRIC.  WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS NOW SPLIT BETWEEN T4.0 AND
T4.5...OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT WEAKENING IN ELIDA BY REDUCING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.  IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...THE FORECAST
REMAINS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS DUE TO THE FACT
THAT THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  

ELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP ELIDA FROM MOVING TOO
FAR TOWARD THE NORTH.  UNTIL THE RIDGE GETS INTO PLACE...ALLOWED FOR
A LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NORTHWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT TERM. TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR
FORWARD SPEED AS ELIDA BECOMES A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER SYSTEM. 
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 16.4N 112.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.6N 114.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 16.9N 116.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 17.3N 119.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 17.6N 121.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 17.8N 126.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 17.7N 130.9W    35 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 134.9W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BANN