000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150254
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO HINT OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...NOR ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES TO SEE WHAT
IS GOING ON BENEATH THE CLOUDS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
SAB AND TAFB REMAIN AT T4.5...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 75 KT.  ELIDA CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OR
275/9 KT.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STAY ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING SOUTH
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.  WHILE THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ELIDA'S FUTURE HEADING...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODELS WITH REGARD TO FORWARD SPEED.  THE HWRF AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN
A STRONGER CYCLONE THAT MOVES FASTER...WHILE THE GFDL SLOWS ELIDA
DOWN AS IT WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NHC
TRACK SHOWS DECELERATION AS ELIDA WEAKENS...BUT IT IS NOT AS SLOW
AS THE GFDL.  THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IS CLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET AND THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS ELIDA
REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AROUND 27 CELSIUS FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...SSTS WILL GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING
LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM PREDICTION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 16.0N 110.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W    75 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.6N 114.1W    70 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 116.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.3N 118.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN