000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140250 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008 SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER ELIDA HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF EARLIER ESTIMATES AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF 55 KT DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. IT IS TEMPTING TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY A LITTLE...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF AN EYE FORMING IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THEREFORE THE INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP ELIDA ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. AFTER THE STORM REACHES COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN MORE WESTWARD. DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL LOCATION...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS UNCHANGED THEREAFTER. WITH THE TRACK ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...ELIDA COULD HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN SHOWS ELIDA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF PREDICTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP ELIDA BELOW 65 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND MORE TIME OVER 26 DEGREE C OR GREATER WATER...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE...AND ONCE AGAIN BRINGS ELIDA TO HURRICANE STATUS. LOOKING AT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY TABLE THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS ADVISORY...THE CHANCES OF ELIDA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS ARE ABOUT 50-50. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 15.5N 106.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.9N 108.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 16.4N 110.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 16.8N 112.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 118.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 125.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN