000
WTPZ41 KNHC 132035
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

THE STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION OVER ELIDA TEMPORARILY ABATED A FEW
HOURS AGO BEFORE RESUMING NEAR THE CENTER.  MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE
CENTER LOCATED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM BURST WITH
NO SIGNS OF AN EYEWALL FORMING.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT.  ELIDA
HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS LEFT WITH WARM WATER AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT
THE STORM WILL FALL JUST SHY OF BECOMING A HURRICANE OR EVEN START
TO WEAKEN SOON.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY HIGHER THAN MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE INITIALLY...SHOWING THE STORM FLIRTING WITH
HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND THEN END UP CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  

ELIDA REMAINS ON TRACK...290/12.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
REASONING WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM.  THE UKMET SHOWS THE WEAKEST RIDGE...ALLOWING A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  THE
GFS TURNS ELIDA ALMOST IMMEDIATELY WESTWARD...PERHAPS DUE TO A
RATHER WEAK INITIAL VORTEX IN THE MODEL.  OVERALL THE MODELS ARE A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
BE NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 15.6N 105.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W    60 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N 117.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 17.0N 121.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     18/1800Z 17.0N 125.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE