000
WTPZ41 KNHC 130832
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT STRONG BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND ALSO ALONG THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...WHERE
THE OUTFLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST IMPROVED.  HOWEVER...THERE
STILL SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH EASTERLY SHEAR TO POSITION THE SURFACE
CENTER JUST BENEATH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
CANOPY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH
AGENCIES...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...CALLING FOR A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24
HOURS...USING A BLEND OF THE SUPER ENSEMBLE...HWRF...AND THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.  AFTER A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT AROUND THE 36
HOUR PERIOD...A WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS ELIDA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.
 
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS WERE WEIGHTED
HEAVILY IN ESTIMATING THE INITIAL MOTION AT 290/14. ELIDA CONTINUES
TO TRACK WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A
ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO.  A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH SITUATED JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT WESTWARD TO A POSITION ALONG 130W IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO TO BUILD WESTWARD
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS...PROMPTING ELIDA TO
TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE EUROPEAN GLOBAL
MODELS...GFDL...AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 14.8N 103.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.6N 104.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.3N 106.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 16.8N 108.8W    70 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.1N 110.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     18/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN