000 WTPZ41 KNHC 122045 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...WHILE NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA FROM 1550 UTC INDICATE THAT THE WINDS WERE AROUND 40 KT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT ELIDA AS THE OUTFLOW REMAINS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING. EVEN THOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR CONTINUING...IT INSISTS THAT ELIDA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE HWRF IS VERY SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE STORM TO A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY. MEANWHILE...THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS ONLY PREDICT MODEST STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...BUT THE FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. WEAKENING IS INDICATED AFTER 72 HOURS AS ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. BERTHA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/15 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS...BUT OTHERWISE IS UNCHANGED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 13.5N 100.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 15.6N 104.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 16.4N 107.1W 65 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 17.0N 109.2W 65 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 112.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN