000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300244
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008
800 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008
 
THE CENTER OF ALMA HAS CONTINUED INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 350/8
SINCE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA ABOUT EIGHT
HOURS AGO.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS STILL DISCERNIBLE IN THE
LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES LEADING UP TO SYNOPTIC TIME...AND WE HAVE
SUBSEQUENTLY FOLLOWED THE CENTER INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS BY TRACKING
A SMALL ROTATING BALL OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON VERY LITTLE DATA BUT IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 40 KT.
 
THE TRACK OF ALMA AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BEND TO THE LEFT OR NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
AND GULF OF MEXICO.  FOLLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CALLS FOR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER TO PERHAPS CLIP THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEFORE MOVING OVER
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.  DESPITE THAT POSSIBLE SHORT TIME OVER
WATER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF
SPENDING THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND
ALMA SHOULD NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SOMETIME
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY LAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS.  DESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ALMA IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM...IN THE AVAILABLE RECORDS...TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  IT ALSO
MADE LANDFALL FARTHER EAST THAN ANY PREVIOUS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WAS THE FIRST TO DO SO ON THE PACIFIC COAST
OF NICARAGUA.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 13.4N  87.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 14.9N  87.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 16.6N  88.7W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 17.8N  90.1W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE