000
WTPZ41 KNHC 292030
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008
200 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE FEATURE IS CROSSING THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR THE CITY OF LEON.  THE
CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT CONVECTIVE COIL SURROUNDING
THE EYE FEATURE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
55 KNOTS. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY MOVING INLAND AND A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...TORRENTIAL
RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 12.4N  87.0W    55 KT...CROSSING THE COAST
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 13.6N  87.3W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 16.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS