000
WTPZ41 KNHC 052037
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
200 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
 
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 65 KT SO HENRIETTE IS HELD AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH. LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A FEW HOURS.  RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND WITH
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO...IF NOT SOONER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TAKING THE CENTER OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE A TRACK OVER SUCH HIGH TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE COULD MAKE IT
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 27.0N 110.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 29.3N 110.3W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 32.1N 108.0W    15 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME