000
WTPZ41 KNHC 050846
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
200 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007
 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT TWO WELL-DEFINED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND 65
KT RESPECTIVELY...WHILE 3-HOUR AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 55
KT.  A 0124 UTC QSCAT PASS ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 55 KT...
HOWEVER...THE PASS WAS LARGELY OBSTRUCTED BY LAND AND IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW ACCURATE THE VALUES ARE.  BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE ABOVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD
AT 65 KT.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/11.  HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 OR SO HOURS WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA.  THEREAFTER...A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION.
 
DESPITE THE WARM WATERS ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...THE INTERACTION OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF THE
CYCLONE WITH LAND WILL MOST LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS...THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF MEXICO SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AT FAIRLY RAPID RATE
AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN TWO DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
BECAUSE HENRIETTE WILL APPROACH THE MAINLAND COAST AT A SHARPLY
OBLIQUE ANGLE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND/OR
LANDFALL LOCATION.  A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
WOULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG MAINLAND
MEXICO.  WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL
SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 25.0N 109.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 26.8N 110.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 29.5N 109.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 32.5N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI