000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050254 TCDEP1 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007 THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE HAS RECENTLY EMERGED OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ NEAR ISLA CERRALVO. THE RAGGED EYE THAT WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY PRIOR TO LANDFALL ERODED DURING HENRIETTE'S BRIEF PASSAGE OVER LAND. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT DEGRADED VERY MUCH AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUGGESTS THAT HENRIETTE IS STILL A HURRICANE. THE MOTION HAS BEEN BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...ABOUT 350/10. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS A PERSISTENCE COMPONENT AND IS TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED BETTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HENRIETTE WEAKENED LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER BAJA...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW KEEPS IT AT HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HENRIETTE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SINCE THE WATER IN THE SEA OF CORTEZ IS QUITE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT HENRIETTE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME OVER WATER IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN. IF THE HURRICANE MOVES LEFT OF TRACK AND SPENDS MORE TIME OVER WATER IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN NOTED BELOW. BECAUSE HENRIETTE WILL APPROACH THE MAINLAND COAST AT A SHARPLY OBLIQUE ANGLE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND/OR LANDFALL LOCATION. A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST WOULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG MAINLAND MEXICO. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 24.1N 109.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 25.6N 110.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 27.5N 110.2W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 06/1200Z 29.7N 110.0W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/0000Z 31.8N 108.9W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN