000
WTPZ41 KNHC 042039
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS INDICATE
THAT HENRIETTE MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR SAN
JOSE DEL CABO AROUND 2030 UTC.  DVORAK INTENSITY WERE 75 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SINCE THAT TIME...THE EYE
HAS BEGUN TO FILL AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS BECOME RAGGED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.
 
HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATED AT 345/9.  A NORTHWARD TURN WITH A SLIGHT
ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS.  TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK
ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ REACHING THE MAINLAND COAST OF
MEXICO IN 24-36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING DUE TO HENRIETTE'S FORECAST SHORT DURATION
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS UNCLEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES
THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL BE DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ. HENRIETTE
SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN ONCE MAKING ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG
THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HENRIETTE COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 2-3
DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 23.1N 109.6W    70 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 24.4N 110.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 26.3N 110.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 28.4N 110.6W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 110.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME