000
WTPZ41 KNHC 040901
TCDEP1
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS
HAVE SHOWN AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION OF
HENRIETTE.  BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN
LUCAS CLEARLY SHOW A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KT MAKING HENRIETTE THE
THIRD HURRICANE OF THE 2007 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  

HENRIETTE APPEARS TO MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
WITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD OF A TROUGH...
WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN 
12 HOURS OR SO.  THE UKMET MODEL IS THE FURTHEST TO THE EAST AND
KEEPS HENRIETTE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT A HAIR
TO THE EAST AND WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION.  ONCE HENRIETTE IS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...FINAL LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
ONCE INLAND THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION
FAIRLY QUICKLY. 

BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND IN STRENGTH...HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER BAJA.  THE WATERS ARE
PLENTY WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...SO IT IS POSSIBLY THAT
HENRIETTE COULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW.  LITTLE
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AS
A RESULT OF THE SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THE CENTER WILL BE OVER BAJA.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN THE
CYCLONE MAKES ITS FINAL LANDFALL. 

BASED ON A 0150 UTC PASS FROM QUIKSCAT...THE WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.   

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 21.4N 109.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 24.5N 110.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 26.4N 110.6W    65 KT
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 28.4N 110.4W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 31.0N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI