000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030852 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 200 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2007 DESPITE A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION DEPICTS A BIT OF A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN THE BANDING FEATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES...AND BASED ON THE RECENT LESS IMPRESSIVE BANDING STRUCTURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT. THE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 24-36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH MOST HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PEAK INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND SUPER ENSEMBLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH A MAXIMUM FORECAST INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 310/8...A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ARE SUGGESTING A TURN NORTHWARD PLACING THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48 HOURS...THEN CONTINUING ON OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH THE SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS INDICATE A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH DISSIPATION IN 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 19.4N 107.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.2N 108.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 21.4N 109.8W 70 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 22.7N 110.7W 75 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 111.3W 70 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA 72HR VT 06/0600Z 28.0N 111.5W 50 KT...OVER GULF OF CALIF 96HR VT 07/0600Z 32.0N 110.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 120HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB