000
WTPZ41 KNHC 030257
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS
EVENING.  DESPITE GOOD BANDING FEATURES...THE OVERALL AREAL EXTENT
OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT.  IT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A
MYSTERY AS TO WHY HENRIETTE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FORECASTS HENRIETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND PEAKS
THE INTENSITY AT 85 KT IN 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...INTERACTION WITH
LAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY
INDUCE WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...IF HENRIETTE MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER AND COULD REMAIN A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

THE FORWARD MOTION OF HENRIETTE HAS SLOWED DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/4.  HENRIETTE IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT
EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 140 DEGREES WEST.  WHILE THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE ON RE-CURVING THE CYCLONE OVER OR NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE
GFDL MODEL REMAINS THE EASTERN-MOST SOLUTION...AS IT KEEPS HENRIETTE
JUST EAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS ARE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...VERY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. 
BASED ON THE FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 18.9N 107.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 19.5N 107.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 20.6N 108.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 21.9N 109.9W    85 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 23.5N 110.7W    75 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 27.0N 111.0W    55 KT...OVER SEA OF CORTEZ
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 32.0N 110.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN