000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020844
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OUTER BANDS...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF
THE CYCLONE...ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BASED ON THE RECENT IMAGES...HENRIETTE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING.  FOR NOW...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS ESSENTIALLY A CARBON COPY FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KT AT THE 36 AND 48 HR PERIODS TO CONFORM WITH A
BLEND OF THE GFDL...LGE MODEL AND THE SHIPS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
OVER COOLER WATERS.
 
HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OF TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 280/8.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE THE CYCLONE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GENERAL MOTION DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...HENRIETTE SHOULD BEGIN A TURN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND ULTIMATELY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE MAJORITY OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL
AND ECMWF...WHICH HAVE BEEN REFLECTING A RIGHT OF TRACK
BIAS...INDICATIVE OF UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS BASED ON THE CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MODEL.    
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 18.5N 107.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.7N 108.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.2N 109.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 19.8N 110.8W    80 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 20.8N 112.1W    80 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 23.4N 114.1W    70 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 26.0N 115.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     07/0600Z 29.0N 115.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB