000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020303
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007
 
THE CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO EDGE AWAY FROM THE COAST
OF MEXICO...AND IS ASSUMING A MORE SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN WITH
OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. SINCE CLASSIFICATION
TIME...THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF A WARM SPOT DEVELOPING IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MANUAL AODT ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO INCREASED. AS
SUCH THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. HENRIETTE IS IN A
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SSTS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...PEAKING IN 24-36 HOURS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...GFDL AND THE LGEM MODELS.
INTERESTINGLY...THE SHIPS MODELS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX PROBABILITY
IS 60 PERCENT AND AS SUCH THE MODEL IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE AND IS
FORECASTING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS. THIS LEAVES OPEN THE
POSSIBILITY THAT HENRIETTE COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS
FORECAST.
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH IS NOW 290
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WHILE A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 145W IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN THE HIGH...ALLOWING HENRIETTE TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEYOND 48-72 HOURS. MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND BRINGS
HENRIETTE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COOLER WATERS JUST WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. ACCORDINGLY THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AND BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER
HENRIETTE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE RELIABLE GFDL AND ECMWF
MODELS...AS WELL AS THE CCON CONSENSUS REMAIN OUTLIERS ON THE RIGHT
AND BRING  HENRIETTE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHERE
THE OCEAN IS QUITE WARM. IN THIS CASE...HENRIETTE COULD MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY AND THE HURRICANE WOULD POSE MORE OF A DANGER TO
MEXICO. ONE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE RUNS OF THESE TWO
RELIABLE MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 18.4N 106.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.9N 107.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.4N 109.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.1N 110.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N 111.5W    70 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 25.5N 114.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 29.0N 114.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER COBB/BEVEN