000
WTPZ41 KNHC 012033
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007
 
NOW THAT MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING AWAY FROM LAND...THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A MORE DISTINCT SHAPE.  THE
CENTER IS VERY MUCH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION AND WITHIN
SEVERAL CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IN FACT...THERE IS A HINT OF AN
EYE FEATURE.  T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED SUPPORTING A HIGHER INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS
WARM. THEREFORE..HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. 

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UNANIMOUSLY...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE HIGH ALLOWING HENRIETTE TO TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEYOND 3 DAYS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE BRINGS HENRIETTE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COOLER WATERS JUST
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. ONLY THE GFDL AND THE ECMWF MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHERE THE
OCEAN IS QUITE WARM. IN THIS CASE... HENRIETTE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY AND THE HURRICANE WOULD BE MORE DANGEROUS TO MEXICO.
ONE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE RUNS OF THESE TWO RELIABLE
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 18.2N 105.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.8N 106.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N 110.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 111.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 24.0N 115.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 27.0N 115.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA