000
WTPZ41 KNHC 312034
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH
LAND...THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
AND HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. THIS 
IS CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 
 
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH WOULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT
CHANGED.  A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO STEER HENRIETTE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST
BECOME UNCERTAIN SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. MODELS ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND MOST OF THEM BRING THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 16.2N 101.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 16.9N 102.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N 104.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 19.5N 107.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 24.5N 113.5W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA