000
WTPZ41 KNHC 311439
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007
 
RADAR FROM ACAPULCO AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A VERY LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CENTER
OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. IN ADDITION...A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH LAND. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
35 KNOTS. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED SINCE THE OCEAN
IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX GRADUALLY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. 

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NOT
TOO FAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
IS FORECAST TO STEER HENRIETTE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOME UNCERTAIN SINCE
THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN AND MODELS DIVERGE. ONE GROUP OF
MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
OTHER GROUP TURNS THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LARGE SPREAD AT 96 AND
120 HOUR PERIODS...AND BRINGS HENRIETTA TO THE WEST AND NOT FAR
FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 15.7N 100.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 16.4N 101.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 17.4N 102.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 18.3N 104.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N 109.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 22.5N 111.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     05/1200Z 25.0N 113.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA