000 WTPZ41 KNHC 310900 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN GAINING ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. GOES-EAST IMAGERY FOLLOWING THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD HAS REVEALED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING RIGHT OVER THE ESTIMATED LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ACAPULCO RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE NOT QUITE YET A CONSENSUS 2.5...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. SINCE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE 06Z...THE DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY ON VERGE OF BECOMING TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...AS THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FORECAST STILL INDICATES HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF DO NOT FORECAST MUCH INTENSIFICATION. BASED ON AN EARLIER 00Z WINDSAT OVERPASS...AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO...THE CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/9. THAT MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE. BEYOND THAT TIME MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THAT RIDGE TO WEAKEN. IF THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS AS FORECAST IT WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THAT WEAKNESS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK FORECASTS. IF IT FOR SOME REASON IS WEAKER...AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE SUGGESTING...THE TRACK COULD END UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH IN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0900Z 15.3N 99.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/1800Z 16.0N 100.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 16.9N 102.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 17.8N 103.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 105.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 108.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 04/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 05/0600Z 23.5N 112.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB