000 WTPZ41 KNHC 310253 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION APPARENTLY DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DATA FROM A RECENT WINDSAT OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT A SMALL VORTEX MAY BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION NEAR THE CONVECTION...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS IS THE PRIMARY CENTER OR A FEATURE ROTATING AROUND A BROADER CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/8. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO PERSIST FOR 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERWARD TO NORTHWESTERWARD TRACK PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH SOME SPREAD BETWEEN TRACKS THAT BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE AND SOME THAT KEEP IT OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER 96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THEY ALL HAVE DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS IN HOW IT WEAKENS. THIS WEAKENING COULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD...AND THUS A SLIGHT RIGHT TURN IS SHOW BETWEEN 96-120 HR. THE FUTURE INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HR WILL MAINLY BE DETERMINED BY PROXIMITY TO LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THE SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE COAST...AND THUS CALLS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. IF THE DEPRESSION MOVES RIGHT OF THE TRACK...IT COULD MOVE OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE AS SHOW BY THE HWRF MODEL. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF IT STAYS FARTHER OFFSHORE...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. EVEN ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM LAND TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING BY 72-96 HR...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE AROUND THAT TIME. BY 120 HR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER WATER THAT SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION. IF THE VORTEX SEEN IN THE WINDSAT DATA IS THE PRIMARY CENTER...THE FORECAST TRACK MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD ON LATER ADVISORIES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 14.7N 98.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 15.4N 98.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 16.4N 100.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 17.2N 101.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 103.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 109.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 05/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN