000
WTPZ41 KNHC 172058
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2007
 
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT COSME HAS AN EXPOSED
TIGHTLY-SWIRLED CIRCULATION WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  A BLEND OF DATA T-NUMBERS
AND CURRENT INTENSITY YIELDED 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB. 
THE 6-HOUR AVERAGED AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMMS RANGED FROM 25 TO 30 KT.  COMPROMISING ON THE ABOVE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.  
 
COSME IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AND A BIT
FASTER AT 275/12.  THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM REMAINS THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH...AND MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS
REASONING AND TAKES COSME ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK.  IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN... HOWEVER...A MORE
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION COULD OCCUR.  
 
COSME REMAINS OVER 25C WATERS AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY
SHEAR.   THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS
DUE PRIMARILY TO PERSISTENCE...WHILE THE GFDL MAINTAINS IT AS A
TROPICAL STORM THROUGH DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS.   IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT
THREE DAYS AND STAYS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...THE WATERS WARM
BACK UP WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR REGENERATION. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 14.8N 135.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N 139.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.1N 142.6W    30 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 16.7N 145.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 152.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 156.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N 161.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI