000
WTPZ41 KNHC 162030
TCDEP1
HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
200 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2007
 
AFTER GOING THROUGH AN ORGANIZATIONAL LULL THIS MORNING...COSME HAS
RAMPED UP THIS AFTERNOON.  A DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER 1434 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT PEAK WINDS WERE AROUND 60 KT AT THAT
TIME.  SINCE THEN...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED AND
COSME HAS A SMALL EYE WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING
FULLY AROUND THE CENTER.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
ARE 65 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/10.  THE HURRICANE IS
BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS STEERING
MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT FASTER
AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE...POSSIBLY DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE THAT
THE MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING.
 
COSME'S INTENSITY COULD BE PEAKING...SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY BELOW 26C AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER ALONG THE
PROJECTED TRACK.   THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE
CYCLONE THROUGH DAY FIVE...AS A RESULT OF THE COOLER WATERS AND A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN INTENSITY
CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
 
ONE BIT OF TRIVIA...ONLY FOUR OTHER EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASONS
HAVE HAD THEIR FIRST HURRICANE FORM LATER THAN COSME.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 14.5N 131.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 14.9N 132.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 15.2N 134.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.6N 137.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N 139.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N 151.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N 157.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI