000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161455
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
800 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2007
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF COSME HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST
SIX HOURS.  THE CYCLONE HAS AN EMBEDDED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
AND CLOUD TOPS AROUND -80 DEGREES CELSIUS.  A 1013 UTC AMSR-E
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE...AS DID EARLIER MICROWAVE
PASSES.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 55
KT...WHICH IS ALSO THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  
  
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL STRONGER RIDGING TO THE NORTH.  
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND ANTICIPATES THE
RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...STEERING COSME ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT CHALLENGING.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
COSME SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAIRLY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 25-26C.  IF COSME REACHES HURRICANE
STRENGTH...IT WILL MOST LIKELY DO SO IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. 
THEREAFTER...COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFDL AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT COSME COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH LONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW.   

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 14.3N 130.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 14.7N 131.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 15.1N 133.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 15.4N 135.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N 137.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 143.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 148.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 18.0N 153.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI