000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160854 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 200 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2007 COSME HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS MORNING. MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES AND THE BEGINNING OF AN EYE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9. COSME HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TURNING COSME MORE WESTWARD. NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE GFDL... HWRF...GFS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE CLOSELY AND INDICATES THAT COSME WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND SLOWER GFS. SINCE COSME IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING INTENSITY WILL BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. COSME IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NEAR 27C WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE SSTS GRADUALLY COOL. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS COSME TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF PEAK THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY LOWER. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY AND PREDICT A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND AT THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.8N 129.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 14.4N 130.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.9N 132.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 15.2N 134.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 136.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 16.2N 141.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 146.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 151.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN