000
WTPZ41 KNHC 152042
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
TODAY.  THE ONCE BROAD CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AND
THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION.  OUTER BANDING
FEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  1800 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 3.0/45
KT FROM TAFB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB.  IN ADDITION....A 1500 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWED
SEEMINGLY RELIABLE 30 KT WINDS...BUT WAS INCONCLUSIVE ABOUT
ANYTHING STRONGER.  BASED ON THESE DATA...SIX-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL STORM COSME WITH 35 KT WINDS...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER
DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR NOW.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/7.  THE STEERING MECHANISM
AND TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING. 
COSME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN CURVE MORE
TOWARD THE WEST ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. 

COSME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALLOWING FOR SOME STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR.  THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS COSME
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE
AGAIN A CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 12.7N 128.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.3N 128.9W    45 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 130.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 14.5N 132.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 14.7N 134.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 138.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 17.5N 148.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI