000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151448 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A BIT THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND OCCUPYING THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION...WHICH HAD BEEN LACKING OVERNIGHT. BASED ON A 1032 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE PASS...THE CENTER WAS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BUMPED UP TO 30 KT. IF THIS ORGANIZING TREND OF THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES... THE CYCLONE COULD BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE POSITION FIXES FROM THE TRMM AND GOES DATA COINCIDE WELL... THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...NOW ESTIMATED AT 310/5. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN AND TAKE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. WITH WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR CURRENTLY INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM... STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE...HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL IN THE SHORT TERM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.3N 127.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 13.0N 127.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 14.0N 129.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 14.7N 130.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 15.3N 132.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 137.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 17.0N 145.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI