000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150824
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION DEFINED BY A
FEW BANDING FEATURES AND LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR SOME
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY REACH COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...INHIBITING
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO
BE MOVING ERRATICALLY WITHIN A LARGER GYRE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
295/4. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER
THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS. INITIALLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A MORE AGGRESSIVE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...BUT ALL AGREE ON TURNING THE CYCLONE 
WESTWARD LATER IN FORECAST PERIOD... AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 11.5N 127.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 11.9N 128.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 13.0N 129.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 131.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N 136.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 15.5N 140.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N 144.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA