000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150235 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007 THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...WITH CLOUD SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A HARD TO DISCERN CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THERE STILL IS LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND ONLY ONE WELL-DEFINED BAND WHICH IS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. OVERALL... THE CONVECTION IS LESS VIGOROUS THAN SIX HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER POSITION IS UNCERTAIN...THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 270/6. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AND THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS NOW SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 135W. SOME MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION ELONGATING AND THEN BEING EJECTED NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF THE ITCZ...AND INDEED THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL ROTATION IS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT...LIGHT SHEAR...AND WARM WATERS. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS STILL ENGAGED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE CONVECTION IS WIDELY DISPERSED. THIS WOULD ARGUE AGAINST RAPID DEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS VERY HIGH. AFTER 36 HOURS OR SO...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER 26C WATERS SO WHATEVER INTENSIFICATION DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 11.3N 127.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 11.5N 128.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 12.2N 129.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 130.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 132.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 136.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 15.0N 139.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 142.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN