000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142030
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007
 
THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION DEFINED BY A FEW
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...BUT IT LACKS A CONVECTIVE
INNER CORE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KNOTS IN ACCORD WITH
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT...THE DEPRESSION IS HEADING TOWARD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE...ONLY
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF BOTH
THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLIMATOLOGY. 
 
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS.   SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-ESTABLISHED
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 11.4N 127.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 11.6N 128.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 12.0N 130.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 12.5N 132.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 13.0N 133.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA