000
WTPZ41 KNHC 141631
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
1000 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007
 
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH
DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICAL EASTERLY FLOW. SINCE
THIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE...THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5
DAYS.
 
THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG BUT...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN.
THEREFORE...ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLIMATOLOGY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1700Z 11.2N 126.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 11.5N 128.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 12.0N 130.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 12.5N 132.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 135.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 13.5N 138.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA