000
WTPZ41 KNHC 311428
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
800 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
 
ALVIN HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AND AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON NIGHT-VIS IMAGES.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
LOOKS TO BE ON A FAST TRACK TO DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON.  

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALVIN IS CREEPING TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...250/2. MODELS CONTINUE THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK FOR A FEW DAYS DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS ALSO A TOUCH SLOWER SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
STUBBORNLY REFUSING TO MOVE MUCH.    
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 13.0N 115.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 12.9N 115.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 12.7N 116.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 12.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 12.3N 117.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 11.9N 118.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 11.2N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     05/1200Z 10.5N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE