000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300833
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
200 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2007
 
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ALVIN HAS DECREASED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...NEW
CELLS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP. EVEN STILL...ALVIN LOOKS LESS
ORGANIZED AND MAY FINALLY BE SUCCUMBING TO THE POOR THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS PLAGUED THIS CYCLONE SINCE ITS INCEPTION.
DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THAT ALVIN HAS DROPPED BELOW STORM FORCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THUS LOWERED TO 30 KT. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND
ALVIN'S EXPECTED TRACK WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS.  NONE OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE
STRENGTHENING AND NEITHER DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  WHILE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ALVIN REMAINING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST...DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS
POSSIBLE. 
 
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/4.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 13.0N 114.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 13.1N 115.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 13.2N 115.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 13.2N 116.6W    30 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 13.2N 117.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 13.0N 119.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 12.5N 120.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     04/0600Z 11.5N 122.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME