000
WTPZ41 KNHC 281436
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
800 AM PDT MON MAY 28 2007
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VIGOROUS BUT 
LIMITED IN EXTENT...CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE CIRCULATION.  AN AQUA-1 PASS AT 0930Z SUGGESTS THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED...WITH THE CENTER POSSIBLY MIGRATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...I WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 270/6...BUT A FEW MORE VISIBLE IMAGES SHOULD
INDICATE WHETHER MY ADVISORY POSITION IS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 25
KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  A
QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE DEPRESSION IS DUE SHORTLY.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...AND AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IT SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.  THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE
DEPRESSION AND SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT THIS
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE DISCOUNTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.

WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPMENT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MIXED. 
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM ENOUGH WATERS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SURROUNDING ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY
STABLE.  WITH THE STABILITY LIMITING THE CONVECTION...THERE HAS
BEEN JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING
ORGANIZED.  OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS MORE VIGOROUS THAN
IT WAS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
ARE FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO REACH STORM STRENGTH.  IF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS INDEED REFORMING NEAR THE CONVECTION...THE
DEPRESSION WOULD LIKELY BECOME A STORM EARLIER THAN INDICATED
BELOW. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 13.0N 113.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 13.0N 113.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 13.0N 114.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 12.9N 115.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 12.7N 116.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 12.5N 117.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 12.5N 119.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     02/1200Z 12.5N 120.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN