000
WTPZ41 KNHC 272041
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 27 2007
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH
TODAY...AND PRESENTLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TO QUALIFY THE SYSTEM AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 12Z THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT. INFLOW
FROM THE SOUTH IS BEING CUT OFF BY THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
PREDICTORS IN THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY NEGATIVE. THE
MODEL ITSELF NOW SHOWS ONLY MODEST DEVELOPMENT. IN VIEW OF THE SSTS
AND THE RELATIVELY LIGHT ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION...
BUT IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN SOON THE SYSTEM WILL
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW. 

WITH THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION...THE CIRCULATION IS NOT RESPONDING
TO THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS
SLOWED. THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/2. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE LEFT AS THE DEPRESSION BUMPS UP AGAINST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 30N/145W. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES
WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...BUT WITH A WEAKENED SYSTEM THIS SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAN IT DID THIS MORNING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE UKMET
GUIDANCE. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 13.2N 111.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 13.3N 111.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 13.4N 112.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 13.5N 112.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 13.5N 113.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 13.5N 114.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     31/1800Z 13.3N 115.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 13.0N 116.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN