000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180230
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS
DEPICT A CLEAR 25 NM EYE...AND AN EXPANSION OF THE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.  THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE SIZE EXPANSION OVER THE TWO
QUADRANTS. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS WELL AS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS...AS
THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE
THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN
FORWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH SUGGESTS AN EARLIER...ABRUPT TURN TO
THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND CLOSER TO THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 14.2N 128.2W   105 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 14.6N 129.1W   100 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 15.6N 130.8W    80 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.1N 131.5W    70 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 133.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     23/0000Z 18.0N 135.5W    50 KT
 
$$