000
WTPA42 PHFO 270858
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number  28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082020
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020
 
Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance 
Squadron have again been flying around and through Douglas since 
sunset this evening, and have found the cyclone to be a little 
stronger than earlier today. Maximum flight level winds were 
between 90 and 100 kt, with a peak of 103 kt recently reported. Peak 
SFMR winds ranged from 75 to 85 kt, while the central pressure has 
been pretty steady, and close to the value used in the previous 
advisory. Based on the preponderance of evidence, the initial 
intensity for this advisory was conservatively increased to 80 kt. 
This indicates a slight strengthening trend, despite what appears to 
be a hostile environment characterized by southerly vertical wind 
shear. 

The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt, with Douglas primarily 
being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge centered to the north of 
the cyclone. In the upper levels, Douglas lies between a ridge to 
the east and a trough to the west, in an environment characterized 
by southerly vertical wind shear. The expectation is that this
debilitating wind shear will persist over the cyclone over the next 
couple of days, leading to de-coupling of the lower and upper 
levels of the cyclone, and subsequent weakening. The increasingly 
shallow system is then expected to be steered toward the west at an 
increased forward speed until dissipation occurs in a couple of 
days. The updated track forecast is close to a fairly tightly 
clustered suite of dynamical model guidance. The intensity 
forecast also leans more heavily on the dynamical models, and 
anticipates a fairly rapid rate of weakening west of the main 
Hawaiian Islands. 
 
Key Messages
 
1. Douglas will pass just north of Kauai tonight, producing locally 
strong and potentially damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and 
dangerously high surf, especially along north and east facing 
shores. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of 
the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 22.5N 158.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 23.2N 161.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 23.7N 165.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 24.1N 168.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 24.3N 172.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 24.5N 175.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 25.0N 179.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  31/0600Z 26.5N 173.0E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard