000
WTPA41 PHFO 160844
TCDCP1
 
Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number  28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052022
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 15 2022
 
Deep convection associated with Darby remains limited, with only 
a few small deep convective bursts occurring over the past 12 
hours. CIMSS SATCON intensity estimates ranged from 37 to 44 kt. 
The various satellite intensity estimates ranged from 30-40 kt 
from PHFO and SAB. Based on these data, and convective trends, 
the initial intensity remains at 40 kt.

The initial motion is now 265/18 kt. Darby will continue to move 
westward in the low-level trade wind flow until the system 
dissipates. The new forecast track is in the center of the 
tightly-clustered track guidance, with very little change from the 
previous track.

Darby will continue to weaken as it moves over 25-26C sea surface 
temperatures and ingests drier air. This combined with moderate 
shear will translate to the system becoming a post-tropical cyclone 
by 24 hours, and the global models are in good agreement that the 
system will dissipate to a surface trough by 36 hours. The new 
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 17.4N 151.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 17.4N 154.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 17.2N 158.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$

Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs