000
WTPA41 PHFO 271441
TCDCP1
 
Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number  13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP032020
500 AM HST Sat Jun 27 2020
 
Mid- and high-level clouds that had been obscuring Boris' low-level 
circulation center (LLCC) have cleared, leaving it nearly 
completely exposed, despite a recent short-lived burst of 
thunderstorms in the northwest quadrant. A 0710Z ASCAT-C pass and a 
1110Z VIIRS image (nighttime visible) were helpful in center- 
locating, adding confidence to the initial motion estimate of 270/06 
kt. A blend of available analyses and intensity estimates supports 
maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt. 

Boris is moving through an environment characterized by 
debilitating southerly wind shear, and dry low- to mid-level 
air, which should prevent significant convection from persisting 
over the LLCC. Therefore, Boris will likely degenerate into a 
remnant low by tomorrow, and the updated official intensity 
forecast offers little change, and is in line with the intensity 
consensus. As Boris weakens, guidance indicates it will be 
increasingly steered by a surface high to the distant north, with a 
subtle turn toward the west-southwest anticipated before dissipation 
occurs early next week.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 12.3N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 12.3N 141.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 12.0N 143.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 11.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 10.8N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard