000 WTNT45 KNHC 010841 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 500 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Deep convection associated with Lisa has continued to expand overnight, and there has also been some increase in banding noted in infrared satellite imagery. However, data from an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft suggest that this has not yet resulted in an increase in intensity. The plane found flight-level and SFMR winds to support an initial intensity of 40 kt, and that is the basis for the advisory intensity. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the cyclone this morning. Lisa appears poised to strengthen given the recent increase in organization and expected favorable environmental conditions. The storm will be traversing SSTs of around 29 degrees Celsius and remain within an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening, and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours when it is near the Bay Islands of Honduras. The NHC wind speed forecast follows the ICON and HFIP corrected consensus aids, which is between the higher regional hurricane models and the lower statistical aids. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly thereafter. The tropical storm is moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The updated track forecast is slightly north of the previous track at 12 and 24 hours, but is very similar to the earlier official forecast thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday afternoon. 3. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands starting late Tuesday through Thursday. 4. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.0N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 16.4N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 16.7N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 16.9N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 17.0N 88.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 03/1800Z 17.0N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/0600Z 17.0N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown