000
WTNT45 KNHC 270843
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015
500 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015

Since the larger convective burst late yesterday afternoon, Ida has
only produced a few small areas of showers and thunderstorms
overnight.  Satellite images also suggest that the center has become
somewhat less defined over the past 24 hours.  Based on the decrease
in organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 25 kt,
which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak current intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Ida is currently in an environment of moderate westerly shear and
dry mid-level air, and little change in strength is anticipated
during the next few days.  By 72 hours, Ida is forecast to
encounter strong upper-level northerly winds, which should cause
the system to finally degenerate to a remnant low, however, it would
not be surprising if this occurred sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 270/4.  Ida is forecast to turn
west-southwestward at a faster forward speed by tonight as a
low-level ridge strengthens to the north of the depression. When the
ridge moves eastward in a couple of days, Ida or its remnant should
turn westward.  The new NHC track is similar to the previous
advisory and is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 24.3N  48.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 24.2N  48.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 23.6N  50.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 23.2N  52.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 23.2N  54.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 24.0N  58.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z 24.2N  61.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown