000
WTNT45 KNHC 242036
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015
500 PM AST THU SEP 24 2015

Ida is a sheared system and consists of a tight swirl of low clouds
with a comma-shaped convective band to the east of the center. Since
there has been no change in the satellite presentation, the initial
intensity is kept at 30 kt. Global models no longer forecasting a
decrease in the shear, and in general, all models are showing a
gradual decay of the cyclone. On this basis, the NHC forecast
maintains Ida as a depression through the forecast period.

Ida has been moving toward the north at about 4 knots. The mid-
tropospheric trough, which was affecting Ida, is gradually moving
eastward away from the cyclone, and the subtropical ridge has begun
to develop to the north of the cyclone. This pattern will favor a
north-northwest to northwest track during the next 48 hours. After
that time, the cyclone is expected to be a shallow system, and will
likely move westward as it is steered by the low-level easterly
flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 21.2N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 21.9N  45.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 22.5N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 23.5N  46.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 24.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 25.0N  48.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 25.0N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 24.5N  52.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila