000
WTNT45 KNHC 291331
TCDAT5

REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Surface observations from Cuba, satellite imagery, and reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erika
has degenerated into a trough of low pressure, with the remnants of
the center located near the north coast of eastern Cuba.  Winds of
near 30 kt are occurring to the north and east of the center, and
these conditions will likely continue through at least this
afternoon.

The remnants are expected to move west-northwestward near the
northern coast of central and eastern Cuba for the next 12 to 24
hours and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours.
After that time, a more northward motion is expected over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear
could relax by the time the system reachs the Gulf of Mexico, and
there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate.  Regardless of
regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds should spread
across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida during
the next couple of days.

This will be the last advisory on this system by the National
Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs.  Additional information
can be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast
office products issued by the National Weather Service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1330Z 21.5N  75.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven